What Did We Learn From Last Night?

Looking further into the results from last night, I’m struck by how much more complex the political scene across the nation is compared to its portrayal in the liberal media. Watching CNN yesterday morning they led with the anger of the voters across the country. Low opinion polling for Congress in general and the rantings of bat-shit Tea Party types has the media looking for a huge Republican wave come the November elections and last night’s primaries were to be the next indication of such a wave coming. Truth is often a little more complex than that.

As I’ve said many times, the Democratic Party will lose seats in the House and Senate no matter how positive the political climate is come November. After the two previous wave election cycles the Democrats are at critical mass when it comes to their penetration into conservative America. Democrats have also been in control for a long enough time for Americans to start to forget who actually dug the hole in the first place. Yet Republicans have assumed that an angry, anti-incumbent attitude automatically leads to 1994 part II electric boogaloo. After such an abysmal stretch from 2005 to 2009, Republicans have extrapolated their victories in the past year to mean an automatic return to power. The primaries and special election were to be a further group of victories to go with wins in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey. What we saw was a campaign operation that cannot get its establishment candidates nominated for Senate and a House operation incapable of winning what should have been an easy pickup.

Before polls were closed yesterday conservative pundits were already adding the night to the great victories that would lead to power in November. The first declaration of the evening was the Kentucky Republican Senate primary. The RNC and Mitch McConnell’s favorite candidate Trey Grayson polled much better against the prospective Democratic candidates, and they put their money and weight behind him. What resulted was wing-nut dandy and Ron Paul spawn Rand Paul winning over the better general election candidate. The raw and undisciplined Paul showed his inexperience by drifting from his victory speech into what seemed like a conspiracy rant seeming to put President Obama in the Trilateral Commission. He then left for his victory party at an exclusive private country club, which will totally work well in getting the Latino vote. In the special election for PA-12, in which the President has a 33% approval rating and the district is very conservative, the Republican candidate lost by over five points. If there is a wave coming, PA-12 is a must win for Republicans. Yet they lost. Arkansas is more of a mixed bag. Sen. Lincoln may be a weaker candidate than Bill Halter, but that contest resulted in a runoff.

The reality is somewhere in the middle. Much like the Conservative party in Great Britain, the atmosphere politically is ripe for a takeover. Yet they seem incapable of taking advantage for several reasons. The Republican party is devoid of compelling figures that can be national faces. They have no money and seem to be divided by the Tea Party movement. The economy is improving and generating a quarter million new jobs a month. Democratic enthusiasm is closing the gap, and November is a long way off. But regardless Republicans will gain some seats.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 19th, 2010 at 1:28 pm and is filed under 2008, Business Matters, History, Media, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.