The Sunshine Empire

This Massachusetts special election for Ted Kennedy’s former seat has me aggravated. My aggravation has little to do with the coming victory of the Republican candidate Scott Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley. The idea that the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is some monolithic Democratic partisan mass is a misnomer. I’m aggravated at what special elections have become in this country. No matter the state and no matter the parties involved, every special off year election has become some sort of national referendum in the court of 24 hours news channels. These are local races that are infiltrated by all the national figures of both parties weighing in. But this does not change much, and may take away a vital tool for Republican plans to take back the House.

Much of the national reaction to Scott Brown’s surge into the lead in the polls in The Bay State has been how shocking it would be to have a Republican in Ted Kennedy’s old seat. But it goes beyond to the supposed lockstep Democratic nature of the state. History and statistics tell a different story. Roughly only 30% of the electorate in the commonwealth are registered Democrats and 50% are “un-enrolled.” In addition, four of the last five governors of Massachusetts have been Republicans. Before the current governor Devel Patrick, the last Democratic Governor Massachusetts was Michael Dukakis. That’s not to say that Massachusetts is not a reliably blue state to the core, but this is not akin to Barney Frank winning the congressional seat for Salt Lake City.

A Brown win is not a repudiation of the health care reform bill either. Massachusetts already has essentially universal health care thanks to former Republican governor Mitt Romney. The race comes down to simple local matters. The Democrats nominated a poor candidate and Brown has run a hell of a race. The economy is weak and people are angry over it. While the health care debate is of course a factor among many, efforts by the national radical right to make it entirely about health care is simplistic and disingenuous.

The health care reform bill is assumed to be dead once Brown is seated and it will stand as a defeat on procedure. Given an up or down vote, something Republicans begged for while in the majority and subject to Democratic filibusters, the health care reform bill would have passed with about 55 votes in the Senate. The bill was one that many centrist Democrats were going to have to hold their nose to vote for, but if it goes away quickly on a procedural vote many like Blanche Lincoln can put it behind them and focus on other matters while campaigning. Brown can save many from having to vote on an unpopular bill. The bill is unpopular but many of the provisions in the bill, such as barring insurance companies from refusing you due to pre-existing conditions are popular. After having actually tried to solve a problem and having it defeated by Republican obstructionism, Democrats can campaign on Republicans standing in the way of reform. There is not a central boogie man like Hillary Clinton was to campaign on like there was in 1994, and the Democrats actually brought something to the table. The health care reform bill is not the albatross Republicans are hoping for if it doesn’t even come to a final vote, and the public has ten months to forget about it. Many that were making plans to campaign on repealing the health care bill will have to find another approach if there is nothing to repeal.

A Scott Brown win tonight is a defeat for the Democratic party and there’s no way to deny that. Yet the talking heads will tell you tonight that this means the Republicans are back and will take the Congress back based on this local special election of roughly one million people voting. This is hardly the pulse of the nation.