The Sunshine Empire

If you have been following the New York 23rd district special congressional election you either have no life or you live in the district. But the race is fascinating when it comes to the direction of the Republican party and the overall conservative movement. The seat came open when President Obama nominated the Republican representative John McHugh to join his cabinet as Secretary of the Army. Three candidates are vying for the seat from the Democratic, Republican, and New York State Conservative party. The race is fascinating due to several high profile national Republican leaders who have forsaken the Republican nominee Dierdre Scozzafava (I wish I knew how to pronounce that) in favor of the Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. Those Republicans that have come out in favor of Scozzafava have faced unusual scorn from conservatives and this further purification of the movement goes counter to the narrative of Republicans on the rise for 2010.

Now special elections for House seats are always looked to as some kind of harbinger of the future, but this time the race itself is the harbinger more so than whatever the result is. The Republican party and the conservative movement have been going through a purging and purification of its base conservatism. Whereas when Democrats were left with no power in Washington, they sought to recruit centrist and conservative Democrats to run in the west, northeast and south. The result was landslide election wins in 2006 and 2008 that now has all political power in Washington in their hands. This race has shown that national Republicans have decided that the opposite is the way to win in 2010.

Since 2006 national republicans have grown increasingly intolerant of moderate and centrist voices in their caucus. Moderates like Chuck Hagel and Arlen Specter are either shunned by the party or have left it all together. As party leaders emphasize conservative purity more and more, they have lost more and more seats. In the NY 23 race that has been manifest. Conservative figures such as former Alaska Governor Sara Palin and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty have come out and endorsed Hoffman over the Republican party candidate. I imagine that they would excuse it feeling that Hoffman would caucus with Republicans in the House, but what does that say for the Republican party brand to see major Republicans endorsing candidates other than the party nominee? But overall it’s telling that instead attempting to reverse the trend of the death of the Northeastern Republican they seem more set to go down on conservative purity.

The infighting could win the day for Hoffman, and it’s not a huge loss for congressional Democrats as the seat was Republican to begin with. But the heat that Newt Gingrich is taking for backing Scozzafava shows the Republican party has a long way to go to realize their fantasy of repeating 1994 in 2010.