The Sunshine Empire

For the past three weeks public opinion polling across the nation has been solid and consistent in showing Senator Barack Obama with a 5 to 10 percentage point lead. As I have always said national polling means nothing, but the electoral map is looking foreboding for Senator McCain as well. Obama gets to roughly 262 electoral votes in the states he is leading and solid in. That leaves him only needing to win one of the many toss up states left, even if McCain runs the board. Despite the blue hue to Florida, Ohio and Missouri, we still feel it is going to come down to Colorado and Nevada.

But all of this has the political commentary class calling this the moment that McCain needs a game-changer. While not calling the race over, how exactly could McCain really make this a game changer on his own. Of course if Obama says something earth shattering it could turn the tide for McCain, but what exactly can McCain say beyond what he has already said? If he brings up terrorists Obama can always counter with G. Gordon Liddy and various anti-abortion wingnuts, and if he brings up Fannie and Freddie again Obama can always counter with Rick Davis and Charles Keating. Then if anything the debate is a draw. Polling indicates that the amount of undecided voters at this stage is very small, and those are not the kind of voters ginned up by partisan red meat from either side. Most say he needs to talk about solid views and plans on the economy, and that is tonight’s theme. Yet his erratic behavior in melodramatically suspending his campaign to save the economy has even been panned and questioned by rock solid conservatives.

McCain will do a fine job tonight much as he has in the last two debates, but with the average polling bump after debates around 1 percent, something historic on a level never seen would have to happen tonight to drastically shift the course of the election. I wonder if he’ll call him “that one” again.