The Sunshine Empire

In my life American politics is much like dealing with women. Every time I feel that I have them figured out, I come to a new situation and realize that I no completely nothing. I was writing months ago about the feeling that it would have to be Clinton and Giuliani at the end for all the marbles. I stand now looking at both and marveling at the perilous state of both of their respective campaigns.

With Clinton I was laughing at the statements of some saying that she could always become another Howard Dean, and now she looks close to that on the eve of New Hampshire. It’s not just her performance in the Iowa caucuses, but the polls rushing away from her, and her almost Brittany Spears-esqe behavior on the campaign trail. Her fellow New Yorker Rudy’s Florida strategy is risky. I am also subjected to constant television commercials that basically consist of “Hi, I’m Rudy Guiliani, Mayor of 9/11, 9/11 9/11 9/11, a, 9/11 9/11 9/11. I’m Rudy Guiliani and I approved this message.”

In the aftermath of New Hampshire there could be differing movement in the two races. If Obama wins, he could come away with the nomination due to his lead in South Carolina. With three states he could start to move Florida and other big boy states. If Clinton wins we could have a real race, but it’s pretty much just her and Obama from that point. On the Republican side John McCain could win, and it would mean absolutely nothing. There are so many competing forces in the race that news outlets have begun raising the specter of a brokered convention in September. We where talking about that possibility a month or so ago for the record.

We will try to provide as many updates through tomorrow night and enjoy the victory and sort of victory speeches that all of them will do.